Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
Not much movement on the main currencies 0.3 overall is a fairly modest day, IMHO. But maybe thats because yesterday was a fairly quiet day in other markets too SP 500 0.10, NASDAQ 0.02. Quite different from the speculative volatility weve been seeing recently. The darlings of the retail traders also calmed down, with GameStop up only 2.7 and Blackberry 4.0 although AMC was 14.
The small movement on the surface of markets masks some important internal movement as the procyclical trade continued. Energy 4.3 and banks 1.7 did well while the yield curve steepened. Oil was up sharply after OPEC issued a communique saying that they stressed the iportance of accelerating market rebalancing without delay, i.e. keeping supply in line with demand.
AUD was the bestperforming currency, allegedly because iron ore exports hit a record. Im kind of mystified, because the trade figures for December missed estimates due to weak exports 2.8 mom vs 5.8 forecast.The reason the surplus was as high as it was, was because imports fell more than expected 7.8 mom vs 1.5 expected, which isnt a great sign for the strength of the economy. Apparently traders were encouraged by the fact that they reported…