Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
The week is starting out with a general riskon tone thats propelled the commodity currencies higher and the dollar lower.
Sundays news that China and 14 other countries agreed to set up the worlds largest trading bloc, encompassing nearly a third of all economic activity, encouraged sentiment. Many in Asia hope that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, will hasten the recovery from the pandemic. The accord will take already low tariffs on trade between member countries still lower over time.
Then Japans Q3 GDP beat expectations, rising 5.0 qoq vs 4.4 expected. But the composition of that growth was disappointing both private consumption and business investment were weaker than expected. Much of the growth came from exports and the two massive fiscal stimulus packages. Looking ahead, the slowdown already evident in some highfrequency indicators suggests that growth is likely to slow. PM Suga is already putting together a third supplementary budget, but that will only reduce the fiscal drag, not boost growth.
Japans downturn was slightly less severe than other major countries, but its recovery is expected to be slightly slower as well, putting it a bit behind…