Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
Another day of modest changes in the stock market and the FX market, with volumes depressed as the Lunar New Year began in Asia and Japan was closed for a national holiday. In the absence of any major economic indicators aside from the weekly US jobless claims there was little to spur trading, although the modest gains were enough to propel both the SP 500 and NASDAQ to new record highs.
The rally wasnt just in US stocks the MSCI World Index rose for the ninth consecutive day, with both the developed emerging indices moving further into record territory.
The CBOE putcall ratio for individual stocks, a measure of demand for insurance puts against a possible decline in stocks or looked at another way, a demand for bets against the price of stocks, has hit a low last seen in the dotcom bubble of 199900. This shows extreme optimism toward individual stocks.
The similar measure for puts calls on stock indices however is at approximately its average level. This suggests investors are looking at individual company plays more than overall bullishness for the market.
Id guess a lot of the optimism is concentrated in the tech stocks that have been the darlings of investors recently….