FX Markets to Remain Net Short U.S. Dollar after Election

Bets against the U.S. dollar were expected to linger or even increase in the immediate aftermath of the Nov. 3 presidential election, despite jitters in the runup along with surging coronavirus cases, a Reuters poll showed.

After trading within tight ranges for much of October, the greenback rose to a fourweek high on Friday on fears the election results will be contested in the courts, along with economic damage from renewed lockdowns in Europe.

Traders reduced net short dollar bets in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But bets against the U.S. currency have outstripped those in favour for 31 weeks in a row and that is set to carry on.

In the Oct 27Nov 2 Reuters poll, nearly 70 of analysts, or 29 of 42, said net short dollar positions would either stay the same or rise further immediately after the election. Only 13 said they would ease off.

The dollars move is obviously dependent on the election, but what is striking is … how little territory the dollar has been able to gain, and if anything, this pullback is viewed by many investors as a dollarselling opportunity, said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.

Thirtynine of 60 analysts with a view said the election outcome would be the biggest driver of the dollar over the coming weeks rather than the coronavirus spread, where the United States leads the world in daily infections.

Slightly fewer than half of respondents, 25 of 57,…

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