Kiwi Up on RBNZ, CHF Down Onwho Knows? US New Home Sales

Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.

Rates as of 0500 GMT

Market Recap

A day with some stunning moves in the FX market.

NZD was the bestperforming currency by a whisker after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand RBNZ took a more optimistic stance. Although they remain cautious, they upgraded their forecasts, moved their risk assessment to balanced, and were more specific about what would get them to begin tightening. The result was that the market has started to price in a possible rise in rates by the end of the year just slightly.

For example, at their last meeting in November they said that risks to the baseline scenario were less skewed to the downside than they had appeared earlier in the year however unpredictable events could push inflation and employment significantly lower than in the baseline scenario. This time they just said the risks to the economic outlook are balanced

In November they said that monetary policy will need to remain stimulatory for a long time to meet the consumer price inflation and employment remit This time they were more specific than just a long time they said The Committee agreed to maintain its current stimulatory monetary settings until it is confident that consumer price inflation will be sustained at the 2 percent per…

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