OPEC Agreement in Doubt but Oil Little Changed; EU CPI

Note  The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts. 

Rates as of 0530 GMT

Market Recap

Although I generally confine myself to writing about FX, the stock markets grabbed my attention today as the final results of November were tallied. The 10.8 rise in the SP 500 index was nice, but that wasnt the stunner the European STOXX 600 index of stocks in 17 European countries had its largest monthly gain 13.7 since the index began January 1987, as did the US smallcap Russell 2000 index 18.3 December 1978.  The riskon mood that this strong performance represents was naturally negative for safehaven assets gold was down 5.4, its worst monthly performance in four years. In contrast though Bitcoin was up an astonishing 42 during the month its clearly a risk asset, not a safety asset. 

Yesterday the members of OPEC met among themselves virtually, of course. Today they were supposed to meet again together with Russia and a few other nonOPEC producers in the group known as OPEC . As I explained in great depth detail yesterday, theyre trying to decide whether to extend their current output cuts of 7.7mn barrels a day bd into next year or to reduce them that is, increase production from the start of January by 1.9mn bd, as was originally planned. 

Going into the meeting, observers…

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