Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
The focus of the markets is on bonds, not stocks. Bond yields climbed further yesterday in many markets around the world.
The rise in yields this year has been accelerating recently.
Thats in part because prices of industrial metals keep rising. Copper has climbed to the highest level since 2011 while nickel, which is used in making steel, is at the highest since 2014. This is a sign that commodity market participants are looking for a stronger economy and greater demand in the future.
Looking at the coppergold ratio, which I mentioned yesterday, it would appear that this run higher in bond yields may have further to go. Copper represents the markets view on reflation and demand; gold represents the demand for safehaven assets and security.
With bond yields rising, most of the major stock market indices in Europe and the US were lower, with the SP 500 falling for the fifth consecutive day. Coincidentally, the last time that happened was exactly a year ago, during the last week of Feb. 2020, when the pandemic first started to hit global equity markets.
The riskoff sentiment has dissipated somewhat this morning though as most Asian stock markets are higher, except for China and…