Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
The FOMC statement was virtually the same as in September. The only meaningful change was the date. Powell emphasized the same points in the press conference that hes been stressing for some time, namely the risks to the outlook from the pandemic and the need for more fiscal stimulus.
One wag on Twitter summed up the FOMC statement as follows
Blah blah blah Risks
Blah blah blah Virus
Blah blah blah Jobs
Blah blah blah Inflation
Blah blah blah Use all tools
All were unanimous.
I think we can sum up the markets pretty nicely in the same way
Election election election
Pennsylvania Georgia Arizona
Count count count
Trump Trump Trump lies lies lies
Buy buy buy stocks
Sell sell sell dollars
Most of the market moves can be explained as a function of the riskon environment flowing from the assumption that Biden is likely to win the US election while the Republicans are likely to retain control of the Senate. While Trump is gaining on Biden in Arizona, Biden is gaining on Trump in Pennsylvania and Georgia. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, thats it.
US stocks continued to gain yesterday SP 500 1.95, NASDAQ 2.59. The rally has run out of steam somewhat this morning. Asian…