Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
The table above is a bit misleading. The pound has indeed fallen the most since Friday, but its recovering this morning on an article in The Telegraph newspaper alleging that A Brexit breakthrough on fishing could be close with the EU set to formally recognise British sovereignty over UK waters. The report said, Senior Government figures believe that tentative compromise is a prelude for the EU to cave to other British demands on fishing in the coming week of intensified negotiations in London. However, most of the rest of the article which doesnt appear on The Telegraphs website as far as I could tell just rehashes comments made by both sides over the weekend stressing the problems that theyre having reaching an agreement. Im therefore a bit dubious about this article, particularly as I think its much more likely that Britain caves than the EU caves.
The action today shows that there is indeed some upside left to the pound if and when they do reach an agreement, and theres also some downside left if they dont and Britain crashes out with a nodeal Brexit. Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility OBR estimated that a nodeal Brexit would cut 2 off of Britains GDP every year…