Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
It looks like former VP Biden is headed toward victory in the US elections. Hes leading in Arizona and Nevada. If those leads hold, hell have the required 270 electoral votes to win the election. He could also just win Pennsylvania, where he is catching up to Trump. Trump on the other hand would need to win one either Arizona or Nevada back and maintain his leads in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Watch the results from those states as they come trickling in.
After some doubts initially, the betting markets now have that result priced in from predictit.org.
But the market sees the Republicans still controlling the Senate.
Stocks are soaring as a result. In my outlook for the fourth quarter, I noted that a lot of people on Wall Street who still prefer the Republicans would consider this the best of all possible results the notoriously unpredictable Trump out and the Democrats largely in control, but with the Republicans there to moderate their more extreme policies Thats apparently whats happened. With the Republicans in charge, theres less chance of fiscal stimulus but also less chance of any tax increases, plus less chance of regulatory action that would hurt…