Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0500 GMT
Well well wellIt looks like its over! So far there are no signs of the expected assault via state legislatures. On the contrary, the Pennsylvania state Senate majority leader said they would stay with the tradition of the popular vote winner getting the electors. If Pennsylvania doesnt go along, then Trump probably couldnt get the votes this way even if some other states tried this kind of coup.
Much to my surprise, it now appears that the entire legal framework that that tactic is based on is not legally viable. According to two lawyers who argued a case about electors in front of the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court has unanimously undercut the core premise to this argument for legislative superpower. It boils down to this since the showdown between President Bush and VP Gore in 2000, the Supreme Court has ruled that electors dont have the right to vote the way they want but are required to vote in line with the popular vote in their state. If the electors are so constrained and cant disregard the popular vote, then the state legislature is also similarly constrained.
I have to admit, this election looks like the Y2K of election results an incredible amount of worrying about…