Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0400 GMT
US Election update
What I learned over the weekend the biggest insight was this line from the Washington Post about the Senate races
Neither side is certain of victory, and the quirks of each states votecounting systems means it could be days, weeks or even a couple of months before senators know which party holds power over presidential appointments and sets the Senate agenda.
That would be dramatic. The new Senate is supposed to be seated on 6 January. What if there are two people trying to sit in one chair? What happens? I have no idea. But it obviously means more uncertainty for longer, which is never good for markets.
One reason it might take so long is explained by another WaPo headline Republicans shift from challenging rules to preparing to challenge individual ballots
The story reads
In Nevada, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit this week seeking images of the signature of every registered voter in Democraticleaning Clark County a potential first step toward challenging individual votes on grounds that the signed ballots dont match the signatures on fileFor months, Republicans have pushed largely unsuccessfully to limit new avenues for voting in the midst of the pandemic. But with…