Note The table above is updated before publication with the latest consensus forecasts. However, the text charts are prepared ahead of time. Therefore there can be discrepancies between the forecasts given in the table above and in the text charts.
Rates as of 0400 GMT
No certain result yet. Everyones been saying for some time that we wouldnt know the results right away and warning of a red mirage followed by a blue shift. However when we see it play out in real life, its nervewracking.
Once again, the polls have been off tremendously. Trump and other Republicans have much more support than the polls had indicated.Trump apparently won both Florida and Texas, the former by a bigger margin than in 2016! Winning them doesnt guarantee he wins the election, but it does mean that its not the blue wave that many people were predictingexpectinghoping for like me, I admit.
The race isnt over by any means. Statistician Nate Silver, who runs the fivethirtyeight.com website, noted that If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. Theres a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though. A tie would be astonishing. In that case, the House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP. We could have Biden as President and Trump as VP
For Biden to win now, he has to take Michigan and Wisconsin. In that case, he can lose Pennsylvania and still win. The result for…